The situation in the commodity trade market – how does it affect transport?

The growth rate for the commodity trade market in 2023 should decline significantly by dropping to 1–2%. The main cause is the global GDP slump, which is about to put an effective stop to maritime, air, road and rail transport as well as other markets in the TSL industry. We discuss experts’ opinions about the current situation!

What is the situation in the commodity trade market?

The COVID-19 pandemic and then the war in Ukraine have led to a downturn in the global economy. The food and energy crisis is not helping either, nor is the constantly growing inflation. Latest research shows that global GDP and trade is grinding to a halt in terms of growth rate. According to the reports from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), global GDP grew 3.1% in 2022, and is set to reach 2.2% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024.[1]

In these difficult times, consumers begin to economise and clearly limit their buying. The constantly rising prices encourage more sensible spending. Reduced demand for goods is particularly felt by Polish TSL companies, which turn around some of the greatest transit quotas among all EU countries.

What lies ahead for the transport industry in the nearest future?

As forecast by the Transport Intelligence (Ti) analytical centre, the slowdown in the European transport industry will reduce growth to 1.1% (EUR 389.3 billion).[2] Domestic transport will grow at the rate of 0.7%, with international transport up by 2.1%. The situation is better in international transport thanks to the growing popularity of e-commerce.

The TSL industry is facing such challenges as rising fuel prices, taxes, or labour shortages, yet those issues are felt commonly on a global scale. This is going to have an impact not only on Polish and European companies, but also on entrepreneurs across the world (irrespective of the type of transport or their business model).

[1] Source:,114711.html.

[2] Ibidem.