Warehouse Market Forecasts
The warehouse market has become one of the fastest growing sectors in recent years. However, the war in Ukraine and the resulting changes in the global supply chain are already having an impact. We present forecasts for the warehouse market for 2023!
Warehouse market situation in 2022
The condition of the Polish warehouse market remained very good in 2022. High demand and supply were noted. Despite inflation, rising rents (by an average of 15-20%), the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine, more than 120 transactions were noted in the investment market.
By the end of December, more than 4.4 million sqm of new space had been completed, bringing the total stock in Poland to 28.3 million sqm. Tenants leased about 6.7 million sqm. Currently, approximately a further 3.4 million sqm is under construction, which will make it possible to exceed the 30 million sqm mark in 2023.
The value of investment transactions in 2022 in the commercial real estate market was EUR 5.8 billion. The total value of transactions involving industrial and logistics assets, in turn, amounted to EUR 2 billion.
Warehouse Market Forecasts for 2023
In 2023, the warehouse market will be primarily concerned with optimizing spending. Analysts agree that the situation will remain stable, but there will most likely be a reduction in activity by tenants and developers. According to experts, 2023 will see, among other things:
- lower demand and supply,
- higher rents,
- low vacancy rates,
- higher storage level,
- development of emerging markets,
- stable development of last mile logistics facilities,
- greater share of manufacturing real estate in the sales mix (due to the growing role of nearshoring and friendshoring).
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine has brought marked changes. Inflation and the rising prices of electricity, gas, etc. are additional challenges, but should not have a clearly negative impact on the Polish warehouse market.