Will parcel lockers replace couriers? The future of last-mile delivery in the age of smart cities, automation, and green logistics

The last mile is undergoing a structural transformation – shifting from the traditional door-to-door model to an infrastructure built around out-of-home (OOH) delivery. Faced with rising operational costs, labour shortages, and tightening CO₂ regulations, logistics providers across Europe are accelerating investments in parcel lockers (APMs) and PUDO points. Poland is emerging as a clear frontrunner – both in network scale and delivery efficiency. Through integration with public transport and smart city strategies, OOH delivery is becoming not just a logistics channel, but a core component of modern urban infrastructure.

Automation in the last mile: are parcel lockers the new standard?

Just a decade ago, automated parcel machines (APMs) were a niche solution. Today, they are central to last-mile operations. In the OOH model, parcel lockers function as hyper-local microhubs, enabling mass deliveries to a single location and dramatically reshaping the economics of last-mile logistics.

In peak periods, an InPost courier can deliver up to 1,500 parcels per day to lockers – compared to just 150–250 for traditional door-to-door routes. That’s a 5–10x improvement in delivery efficiency.

But parcel lockers are not just physical infrastructure. Thanks to integration with IoT, predictive algorithms, and real-time slot management tools, operators can:

intelligently manage parcel flows,
dynamically reroute congested locations,
optimise delivery routes in real-time.

From an environmental perspective, the advantage is equally clear. According to the Last Mile Experts report, OOH delivery can reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 82% compared to home delivery – driven by parcel consolidation, reduced failed delivery attempts, and growing rates of foot and bicycle pickups.

Smart cities & parcel lockers: a seamless fit

Progressive cities are no longer treating logistics as an external utility but as a strategic pillar of urban infrastructure. OOH delivery, particularly via parcel lockers, is becoming embedded in urban planning, transport policy, and climate action strategies.

Strategic locker placement – near transport hubs, along pedestrian or cycling routes, and in everyday access points like stores or petrol stations – is not coincidental. The report notes that 62% of Polish users collect parcels “on the go”, drastically minimising the need for separate travel or vehicle usage. With average distances to lockers of just 350 meters in Polish urban areas, OOH is arguably the most accessible delivery model in Europe.

Multifunctionality is also accelerating. Lockers now offer:

standard and refrigerated parcel pickup,
EV charging (bikes, scooters, cars),
fully automated returns and dispatch points.

In Western Europe and Scandinavia, parcel lockers are increasingly evolving into urban microservice hubs, aligned with climate strategies and low-emission transport zones.

Open locker networks: the infrastructure response

Interoperability is fast becoming a necessity. In Poland, Orlen Paczka opened its locker network to GLS, setting a precedent for shared access. Similar partnerships are emerging in Italy and Iberia (e.g., DHL + Poste Italiane / CTT Expresso), reducing redundant infrastructure and optimising urban space.

Poland: a blueprint for Europe’s OOH logistics

Poland has become the reference market for OOH implementation — leading in infrastructure density, delivery efficiency, and consumer adoption. As of 2024, the country boasted:

45,000+ parcel lockers (APMs) and
21,000+ PUDO points.

With 11.8 APMs and 5.6 PUDO points per 10,000 inhabitants, Poland surpasses countries like Austria (1.0) or Finland (2.0), despite their developed logistics sectors.

Poland’s model demonstrates that automation, scale, and customer-centric design can converge into a replicable, future-proof last-mile system. For other European operators and policymakers, this is not just a success story — it’s a proven framework for adoption.

What’s next for couriers? A changing role

Despite the rapid rise of OOH infrastructure, couriers are not disappearing — but their role is being redefined. The future points toward a hybrid delivery model where:

APMs and PUDOs handle the bulk of B2C and C2C volumes efficiently,
Couriers serve high-touch, niche segments: large items, elderly customers, COD deliveries.

In this future, door-to-door service becomes a premium, not default, offering.

The bottom line: OOH as a strategic advantage

With failed delivery costs surpassing €14 in Germany and £11.60 in the UK, and one courier handling 10x more parcels via lockers, the economic case for OOH is clear. Add to that:

higher first-time delivery success rates,
fewer returns and complaints,
better customer experience and loyalty.

OOH delivery doesn’t replace couriers — it optimises their role and repositions them within the logistics value chain. In a world driven by speed, cost efficiency, and decarbonization, the OOH model is no longer optional — it’s inevitable.

Last Mile Experts: OUT-OF-HOME DELIVERY IN EUROPE 2025, PUDOs and Automated Parcel Machines